Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowl Wrong?

Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowl Wrong?

The first weekend in January 2014 produced two of the less noticed football bowls.

Saturday, Jan. 4, in the BBVA Compass Bowl, Vanderbilt was favored over Houston by a field goal.

Final score: Vanderbilt 41, Houston 24

Sunday, Jan. 5, in the GoDaddy Bowl, Ball State was picked over Arkansas State by two scores.

Final score: Arkansas State 23, Ball State 20

BBVA Compass Bowl

Spread predictions here.

Another one up, one down, on the simple win-loss, so another 50-percent win ratio for the odds makers. Again, the correct pick also underestimated the game. Vanderbilt was not predicted to head for a blowout, undo it, and then win anyway by three scores.

Again, the line was emphatically wrong. So much for odds making. Where does Vegas get these experts?

As of today, the last day of the 2013-2014 bowl season, 34 of 35 games have been played on the NCAA football bowl schedule. For the 34, thirteen picks have been wrong, and more than a dozen picks choosing the winner have given a wrong picture of the game. Are they trying to lure bettors in? Those odds get inserted into almost all coverage of the games, in regular news media.

Another reason for not betting on college sports: every time you do, you contribute to compromise and taint the press further.


Going forward

On to the next college bowl game; how will the next picks hold up?

Coming up next, tonight is the big one, the BCS Bowl. Ranked #1 Florida State will play ranked #2 Auburn. Auburn comes off a series of miracle wins; Florida State off allegations of sexual assault against its compartmentalizing quarterback.

Florida State is favored by two scores.

Today’s question: Who will get today’s bowl wrong?


One more to come.

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