The Sports Line and Fortune Cookies

Fortune-cookie College Bowl Season

 

Great Ending: Auburn vs Alabama

Now that the 2013-2014 bowl season has ended and 35 games in the NCAA football bowl schedule have been played, we have a final tally on the odds makers. On 35 games, the line was wrong at least thirteen times. On picks correctly choosing the winner, more than a dozen grossly failed to forecast the game, the scores, and the margin.

The last returns came in last night. In the BCS Bowl, Florida State was favored by two scores.

Final score: Florida State 34, Auburn 31.

This time at least the bad pickers–I mean the bad boys–picked the winner correctly. They just blew the game. Down by three is not the same as down by two touchdowns. This was another one I was not able to watch throughout. From what I was able to see, however, Auburn lost at least as much to itself as to the other team. Auburn owned the first half, except for a couple of wobbles late in the half, and FSU was never dominant. Maybe the hype won this one. After this bowl season, anyone who would cite Vegas on sports odds has to be ranked as out of touch.

Fortune

Do they believe what they read in fortune cookies? Have you ever wondered why there isn’t massive theft in fortune-cookie bakeries, where the fortunes are put out? Or why people aren’t thronging newspaper boxes and newsstands, to grab the earliest horoscope predictions for the day? Either the line isn’t what it used to be, or it never was any good, but either way his season exposed  how much those sports predictions resemble the ones in fortune cookies. Their adherents must be the same people who awarded the Heisman.

Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowls Wrong?

Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowls Wrong?

Yesterday, the odds on the bowl were short and sweet: In the Sugar Bowl, Alabama was favored over Oklahoma by at least two scores.

Final score: Oklahoma 45, Alabama 31.

Spread predictions here.

How the mighty are fallen, and I don’t mean Alabama.

Oklahoma!

The odds makers continue their inadequate performance. Not a lot of games on Jan. 2, but the big game was one of the major bowls. The Sugar Bowl is one of the real bowls–like the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl–and still the established pickers got it wrong. The line was emphatically wrong.

The predictions were wrong even by the broad win-loss rubric. They were even more wrong on the picture of the game itself. Alabama came out scoring at the beginning, and the first minutes looked liked an Ahh, Whatever Bowl, but the initial snapshot had little to do with the rest of the game. No predictor said that Oklahoma would end up with something like 45 points, and anyone who predicted Alabama with 31 would not have projected that as a loss. Regrettably, I was not able to watch much of this game. That made the picture clearer: every other time I tuned back in, it seemed, Alabama’s quarterback was getting sacked again, or Alabama was about to try a third down, or Oklahoma players were clapping one or two of their own on the back, shoulders, or helmet in jubilation . . .

Caught behind

Too bad, in a way. A week of college football had started me wondering why coaches don’t teach their players to C.O.V.E.R-THE-R.E.C.E.I.V.E.R.S instead of always going for the big play on defense. Easy for me to say, of course, and even a non-expert can see that it’s easier to swarm one man, or attempt to, than to scatter around the field in different directions chasing several different moving targets. Still–getting close to a receiver can sometimes result in an interception, and getting the ball is better even than getting the quarterback. The repeated sacks against Alabama may have contributed to undo that little moral of the story.

Side note: ESPN (on Verizon FIOS) continuously captioned the Oklahoma-Alabama game “Rose Bowl 2014,” at least in the Washington, D.C., viewing region. They never corrected the error, all night long, so far as I know.

As of today, 30 games have been played on the NCAA football bowl schedule. Out of 30, eleven picks have been completely wrong. More than a dozen picks, including some choosing the winner correctly, have given no true picture of the game. On days when there were several football bowl games, much of the picking was wrong. On a day with only one bowl, the picking was wrong. Why would anyone bet on these experts like these?

Why would anyone bet on college students playing sports in the first place?

Going forward

On to the next college bowl games; how will the next picks hold up?

One of the last bowls 2013-2014

Today has the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl:

Today’s question: Who will get today’s bowls wrong?

More to come.

Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowl Wrong?

Which Odds Makers Will Get today’s College Bowl Wrong?

As of New Year’s Day, the odds on yesterday’s football bowls were as follows:

Jan. 1, 2014:

 

Wrong

Spread predictions here.

Six games on Jan. 1; four games picked emphatically wrong. Four 180-degree wrong predictions even by the broad win-loss rubric. Georgia was nowhere near beating Nebraska by two scores in the Gator Bowl, and South Carolina beat Wisconsin definitively in the Capital One Bowl. Central Florida came out scoring in the Fiesta Bowl and never stopped. The Rose Bowl was very hard fought from start to finish, but Stanford seldom or never looked like a favorite.

 

Hard won

LSU did not crush Iowa in the Outback Bowl, either. That game was more wobbly than predicted to be, though the outcome was correctly predicted. LSU had to fight all the way down to the fizzle of an end*–when it almost mismanaged the clock in final seconds so as to give the ball back to Iowa on downs. The coach had to intervene and arm-wave away a snap. Sometimes it’s a mistake to get too cute. With more than a minute left to play, any team worth its salt ought to be able to run a play without undue risk of disaster. If you’re ahead in the final minute and a half but can’t handle one snap, just one snap, and a single attempt to gain a few yards–that don’t even have to be gained successfully, for the win–maybe you don’t belong in a bowl in the first place. Perhaps the rules should be changed to prohibit taking a knee with more than 60 seconds left in the game.

Won

The Heart of Dallas Bowl and a couple of others serve as reminders that again, future years may see a need for more new bowl names. Lackluster Bowl?

 

Bowl season

As of today, 29 games have been played on the NCAA football bowl schedule. Out of 29, ten picks have been completely wrong. Ten or so of the winning teams and right picks, the favored, depending on how you count them, were favored too narrowly to be realistic. The prognosticators’ ratio is still ailing.

Going forward

On to the next college bowl games; how will the next picks hold up?

Today is the Sugar Bowl:

Today’s question: Who will get today’s bowl wrong?

 

*I root for Louisiana teams and thought LSU would be more solid. A regrettable typo in the previous post–typing in ‘Outback Bowl’ instead of ‘Capital One Bowl’–has been corrected. It would have been more wizardly if I had done it on purpose. Maybe I was picking up on something registered subliminally. Uncle Sigmund, call your office . . .

Speaking of offices, tacking on those sponsor names is making the bowl names more forgettable, not less. The more syllables, by and large, the more obscure.

More to come.

 

On the Paper Trail of a Pedophile, Part 7: Atchison was connected in Florida as well as in Alabama

On the Paper Trail of a Pedophile, Part 7: Atchison was connected in Florida as well as in Alabama

 

Roy Atchison

This blog is the seventh concerning John David Roy Atchison, Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Northern District of Florida, Pensacola, arrested in Detroit in September 2007 on charges relating to pedophilia. He committed suicide in federal prison in October 2007; arrest and suicide were not foregrounded by the Justice Department in the Bush administration, and family connections have further obscured the matter.

 

 

From the Southern Center for Human Rights

In 2005, the Southern Center for Human Rights and the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund filed a lawsuit in federal court in Gulfport, Miss., on behalf of a number of poor plaintiffs, alleging that the City of Gulfport had established basically a debtor’s prison. Among the plaintiffs was an illiterate woman, mentally challenged, who had been incarcerated repeatedly for unpaid fines in spite of her impairment and the fact that her income consisted of a small monthly SSI check. Plaintiffs alleged through counsel that Gulfport was rounding up people with unpaid fines, mainly in black neighborhoods, and corralling them in the overcrowded county jail with little process.

 

Defendants in the lawsuit, settled in January 2007, included the City of Gulfport and then-Chief Municipal Court Judge William B. (Bill) Atchison.

 

Bill Atchison’s brother was Roy Atchison, the federal prosecutor in Pensacola, Fla., who killed himself in prison after being arrested on charges basically of pedophilia in 2007.

As said, the lawsuit was settled in January 2007, with Bill Atchison, the Chief Municipal Court Judge, and the City of Gulfport both represented by city attorney Jeffrey S. Bruni. Other defendants included a fellow municipal court judge, Richard Smith; Gulfport Municipal Court Administrator bill Markopoulos; and Senior Warrants Officer Walter Eighmey of the Gulfport Police Department. The lawsuit was filed in July 2005. A McClatchey newspaper, the Biloxi, Miss., Sun Herald, had reported in June that the City of Biloxi had a backlog of $10.7 million in unpaid fines assessed in its municipal court.

 

Bruni and the city office of Gulfport have not yet returned a call for comment.

Judge Atchison’s brother was arrested in September 2007, as previously written. News reports did not mention the family connections to Gulfport’s Chief Municipal Court Judge. The Atchison brothers’ parents live in Gulfport. Roy Atchison’s death in prison occurred Oct. 5, 2007.

 

A little more than a year later, the chief judge himself was arrested, on Feb. 4, 2009, charged with abusing prescription drugs after an investigation of several months, according to the Harrison County, Miss., sheriff’s office and Gulfport police. Bill Atchison was placed under house arrest. Concerns about his safety in the presence of inmates he had sentenced kept him from having to do jail time in the facility to which the debtors above, for example, had been remanded.

 

As the Sun Herald reported, the Mississippi Bureau of Narcotics alleged that in April 2007 Bill Atchison obtained a 15-day supply of hydrocodone from one physician, another prescription from a second physician five days later, and a third prescription from a third physician two weeks later.

 

Thus the case against Bill Atchison in Mississippi developed during 2007 and 2008—resulting in the early 2009 arrest–and must have overlapped with the developing FBI investigation against Roy Atchison in Florida and Detroit. Their father, retired physician William David Atchison, was allegedly among the doctors from whom Bill Atchison acquired some of his prescriptions. Atchison went on administrative leave after his arrest and resigned his judgeship.

 

A call for information has been placed with Bill Atchison’s attorney, criminal defense lawyer Wayne Woodall. Woodall told reporters that Bill Atchison had undergone two surgeries and was in pain requiring painkillers.

 

Nonetheless, the entire legal matter corroborates a key claim in the Southern Center and NAACP lawsuit about a debtors’ prison in Gulfport, that there is a different justice system for the affluent and well-connected than for the poor.

So does the delicate and muted handling of these legal matters in the press.  There has been little or no media follow-up regarding the numerous cases on which the Municipal Court Chief Judge in Gulfport handed down decisions, including decisions in drug cases, before he resigned in April 2009 after his arrest on charges of abusing prescription drugs. McClatchy, which ran the story on Bill Atchison, did not note the kinship when the Roy Atchison story surfaced but did report the physician father’s alleged involvement.

 

The staff at the Southern Center for Human Rights, located in Atlanta, includes investigator and paralegal Lauren Brown, who according to the Center’s website investigates conditions at jails in Alabama. A report from the Center is linked here.

On the Paper Trail of a Pedophile, Part 4: Things that would have gotten you or me in trouble . . .

On the Paper Trail of a Pedophile, Part 4: Things that would have gotten you or me in trouble . . .

 

Roy Atchison

This blog is the fourth in a series on John David Roy Atchison. Atchison, an Assistant U.S. Attorney in the Northern District of Florida, Pensacola office, was arrested in Detroit in September 2007 on charges relating to pedophilia. He committed suicide in federal prison in October 2007. Arrest and suicide were not foregrounded by the Justice Department in the Bush administration. This article, based largely on FBI material obtained under FOIA, focuses on a point at which Atchison’s federal career and its unfortunate consequences might have been forestalled.

 

As indicated in the previous post, the picture that develops in reviewing Roy Atchison through documents is that Atchison was trying to build his business and professional career in Birmingham, Ala., from the end of the 1970s into the early 1980s. After some years of apparent drift, he seems to have tried to play some serious catch-up ball in Birmingham, where his family had roots, getting his act together and settling down. But just before graduating from law school, he had a brush with the law that could have left a serious blot on his record—certainly nothing on par with pedophilia, but charges of narcotics possession, reckless driving and flouting authority easily sufficient to blemish a stronger career record than Roy Atchison had acquired.

As previously written, Atchison succeeded in finishing law school with a J.D. from Cumberland, in Birmingham, in May 1982. While in law school, he also succeeded in working off two Incompletes to get his M.B.A., in May 1981, and simultaneously worked as a clerk in the highly successful Birmingham law firm Starnes & Atchison.

 

Business Week names Starnes & Atchison in best places to work

Exact dates for Roy Atchison’s tenure at the law firm co-founded by his cousin, W. Michael Atchison, vary somewhat. Repeated attempts to contact Michael Atchison have been unsuccessful; the most recent response indicates that Atchison is currently unavailable for comment. Contacted more than once by telephone, Starnes & Atchison, now renamed, declines to discuss Roy Atchison or anyone named Atchison. A journalist is repeatedly informed that Mike Atchison has left the firm and that the telephone answerer has no idea who could provide information. A brief deafness or linguistic difficulty sets in when caller tries to clarify that current inquiries are about Roy Atchison, not Mike Atchison, much as when one calls up the New York Times to ask about Judith Miller.

 

The FBI background check confirms through at least four interviewees, names redacted, that Atchison worked there. One person identified with the firm told the FBI that Atchison worked there a year, in 1981. Atchison himself told Birmingham police that his employer was Starnes & Atchison in May 1982. For an FBI reinvestigation in 1995, he put down the dates as July 1981 to April 1982; supervisor, name partner Mike Atchison.

Name partner Michael Atchison

On May 1, 1982, just a few weeks shy of getting the J.D., Roy Atchison was picked up by Birmingham police. Obviously any brush with the law is a potential concern in a background check, but the brief account transmitted by the FBI is innocuous enough:

“Arrest check at Tuscaloosa, Alabama, revealed a violation for improper license plates and running a stop sign. Both charges were dismissed. Arrest check at Birmingham, revealed an arrest for reckless driving and violation of Alabama Uniform Controlled Substances Act. The charge of reckless driving was [amended] to running a red light. Applicant failed to appear on this charge and a writ was issued for his arrest. Applicant later appeared and paid a fine. The violation of Alabama Uniform Controlled Substances Act was dismissed by the Assistant District Attorney.”

On his application for the position of Assistant U.S. Attorney in Atlanta, Atchison dispatched the incident even more cursorily. In answer to the standard question as to whether applicant has ever been arrested, Atchison wrote only “Alleged violation Ala. Uniform Controlled Substances Act,” with the city and date, noting that it was Nolle Prossed the same day.

 

The arrest report tells a somewhat different story. According to the police report, signed by two officers and a sergeant, Def was observed running a red light, shortly after noon on May 1, and was arrested for reckless driving. When he was pulled over, officers found “a brown bag on seat of veh containing three other plastic bags with a greenish brown leafy substance believed to be marijuana.” Def was advised of his rights and taken to the Birmingham City Jail.

The car was towed; the police officer who went to the jail on May 1 was “unable to talk to the subject.” No attorney is mentioned in any of the records, although several police officers signed off on the process. A check into the records by Birmingham attorney and legal writer Roger Shuler also does not turn up any mention of legal assistance for Atchison. Shuler notes, “I’m quite familiar with Starnes & Atchison. They are a major defense firm here, particularly in defending medical malpractice and legal malpractice cases. In fact, I filed a legal malpractice case one time against a local lawyer, and Starnes & Atchison represented him. The firm, I believe, has defended the University of Alabama in a number of matters. Also, one of their primary partners, Stancil Starnes, became the head of ProAssurance, a Bham-based company that provides malpractice insurance for doctors . . . My impression is that anyone with ties to Starnes & Atchison indeed is well connected” in Birmingham.

Everyone at the law school interviewed by the FBI said, uniformly, that Atchison had not been observed to abuse alcohol or prescription drugs or to use illegal drugs, as did everyone at the law firm, and all his co-workers.

An Assistant District Attorney charged Atchison in the matter—he subsequently failed to appear in court, earning a contempt citation on top of the reckless driving and narcotics possession charges. However, another ADA, Don Russell, dropped charges and dismissed the case: “Subject had no prior arrests, or any evidence that he was selling narcotics.” (Atchison’s two previous traffic citations—one for running a stop sign, another for expired tags—in Tuscaloosa, had also been dismissed.) Generally speaking, possession of more than one bag of controlled substances might be taken as evidence of selling, but it might be noted that ADA Russell got his J.D. at Cumberland Law School, a year after his fellow alum, the highly-regarded Mike Atchison. It might also be noted that Roy Atchison was not only a soon-to-be law graduate and affiliated with an established law firm in town, but was not guilty of driving while black.

Atchison ended up paying a small fine, getting off lightly. Atchison’s own account of the incident, like his statements after his 2007 arrest in Detroit, changed over time. In his interview for the reinvestigation in November 1995, he gave a particularly self-serving account of the incident. In full:

 “Atchison stated that he has never been involved in any criminal matter as a suspect or subject or any criminal charge, arrest, and/or conviction with the exception of a May 1982 charge by the Birmingham Alabama Police Department, when he was driving a friend’s car. He was charged with reckless driving and the police supposedly found marijuana in the vehicle and charged him with violation of the Alabama Uniform Control Substance Act. This charge, as reported on his original application for employment with the Office of the United States Attorney, was “nolle prossed”. Atchison denied any knowledge of having marijuana in the car or knowing that it was in the vehicle and did not observe the policeman remove the marijuana from the vehicle.” [emphasis added]

 When in doubt, blame the cops. The car was identified as a 1980 blue Fiat. The above information was included in Atchison’s background check. However, the investigator for the brief arrest was different from the investigator handling his Birmingham file, so any discrepancies in his statements were not noted.

 

As said, no records are available to show what if any legal assistance Roy Atchison received, to help with the local police, but his connections are very much Birmingham. Cumberland Law School has extensive connections with Starnes & Atchison. Dean James Lewis in communications there returns a call, says politely that they cannot divulge information about students but wishes me luck on the article; information on who wrote Roy Atchison’s reference letters, when Atchison applied to law school, is not released. Attorneys at the now-renamed law firm are listed on the Cumberland Advisory Board for 2009-2010.  On May 10, 1985, the dean of Cumberland provided the following information to the FBI: dean’s list S81, F81, S82; JD May 23, 1982. “The record reflects no illegal use of drugs or abuse of alcohol by the applicant.”

 

Atchison moved to Georgia after the 1982 arrest incident. Perhaps he had been hoping to become a lawyer full-time at Starnes & Atchison, joining the family roster of doctors and lawyers.

 

Next, Part 5: Signs of trouble?

[Note: This blog was originally posted in September 2010 but was deleted by the system. Re-posted here from Word files.]