More ‘blue wave’ statistics: Today’s updates

Today’s ‘Blue wave’ data–
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From TargetSmart, sent earlier by Politico’s “Morning Score,” here are the ten highest vote totals of early voters and absentee voters, by state.

Texas, modeled GOP, still tops the list in totals of early/absentee voting. (Texas is one of 34 states allowing early voting. Texas also has one of the longest, freest periods for early voting, which began there on October 22 and ends November 2.)

A few changes to the list since yesterday, in more voting. Tennessee, heavily GOP, outpaces Arizona to move up to sixth in votes cast so far. Colorado and Ohio move up above Michigan, now tenth. (Michigan does not have early voting but has absentee voting.) All three states are modeled GOP by this Democratic political data-services firm, but Colorado looks more like a tie.

  1. Texas – modeled GOP    (3,250,301)
  2. Florida – modeled GOP   (2,551,975)
  3. California – modeled Dem      (1,622,906)
  4. Georgia – modeled GOP         (1,188,900)
  5. North Carolina – modeled Dem     (1,127,401)
  6. Tennessee – modeled heavily GOP     (849,722)
  7. Arizona – modeled GOP         (837,583)
  8. Colorado – modeled GOP, barely       (610,426)
  9. Ohio – modeled GOP    (604,595)
  10. Michigan – modeled GOP       (574,807)

California, modeled Democratic, is still third, and Illinois, modeled Democratic, is still eleventh. Of the ten states with the most early and/or absentee voters, eight are still modeled GOP.

North Carolina is still the only plus sign for the Democratic Party in this top-ten list. Below the top ten, Iowa is calculated at the same number as before and is still modeled Democratic (282,661). So is Virginia, still with lower early voting at 189,547.

Again, the early vote totals for Texas on the website are far lower than the count provided by the Texas Secretary of State. [10/30 mistake of mine corrected here: misread total registered voters.]

The helpful breakdown of party registration provided by the state of Florida shows that a majority of vote-by-mail ballots so far are Republican; a majority of early-vote-in-person ballots so far are Democratic. Votes by mail outnumber in-person early votes.

Wisconsin – modeled GOP (219,580), and Pennsylvania – modeled GOP (93,485) are as before. (Pennsylvania does not have early voting but has absentee voting.)

Regardless of state, many of the early/absentee voters are indicated as Caucasian and as over sixty-five.

 

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