Democratic candidate Thompson ahead in first results from Kansas 4th

11:05. Sedgwick County now in; Thompson won it. But Estes ends with his biggest lead of the night. 53 percent to 45 percent. Thompson put up the best fight possible. Good race in a district like this, where Thompson actually led for much of the evening.

10:58. Estes 52 percent, Thompson 46 percent. Two counties still out, including Sedgwick, the largest (half million pop). Only 40 precincts left to report.

10:50. Cable commentators ignoring the Kansas race? With 519 of 620 precincts reporting, James Thompson only 881 votes behind Estes, statewide.

10:45. Estes now leading in Harvey County. Estes lead widest of night at 5 points. 468 of 620 precincts reporting. Six counties incomplete including Sedgwick, the largest. Estes leads by less than 5K votes out of 81K+.

10:40. Biggest counties not finished reporting.

10:30. Same counties still not finished reporting–small Greenwood and Chautauqua (Estes leading in latter), Butler and Sumner (Estes leading); larger Harvey (Thompson) and much larger Sedgwick (Thompson). With 443 precincts of 620 reporting, Estes leads Thompson by 3,000 votes of c. 80,000 cast. Outcome depends largely on Sedgwick and Harvey counties (D), partly on Sumner and Butler (R).

10:20. Two of the smallest GOP counties still out. Two largest Dem counties still out. Two middle-sized GOP counties still out. Close one.

10:15. Harper County now in, for Estes. His lead widens to 4 points with Greenwood County still out. Most of Sedgwick County still out, Thompson still leading. With more than two-thirds of Kansas precincts reporting, Estes lead is 41,695 to 37,955. Thompson also still leading in Harvey County, with some precincts still out.

10:10. Estes lead now 3 points, 51 percent to 48 percent. Two counties still not reporting; Estes leads in three others; but most of Sedgwick County still not reported.

10:05. Harper and Greenwood counties still not reporting; Estes has won most small counties (nine) and leads in three others. Reporting still not complete in the two Thompson counties. Estes still up by 2 points.

9:55. Stafford County heard from, goes for Estes. Estes lead widens to two points. A margin of 973 votes out of 62K+. Greenwood and Harper counties not yet reporting. Sedgwick and Harvey not called yet, but Thompson still leading in both.

9:50. Estes finally pulls ahead of Thompson. Slightly. With exactly half of precincts reporting, Estes has 31,743. Thompson 31,143. 600 votes out of 62,000. Precincts in three counties still not reporting. Estes leading in all counties reporting except Sedgwick and Harvey.

9:45 p.m. Regardless of final outcome, still positive. With over one-third of Kansas precincts reporting, James Thompson still leads. Much narrower: 50-49 percent. But Estes has now won Elk, Cowley and Kingman counties.

9:40. Precincts in five of seventeen Kansas counties not reporting yet. But with 199 precincts reporting, Thompson still leading 51-48 percent.

9:35. More than one-fifth of precincts reporting, Thompson’s lead narrows. 24,892 for Thompson. 23,239 for Estes. Still a lead of 51 percent to 48 percent at the moment. No precincts in the eastern counties reporting yet.

9:30. Estes has won Edwards and Kiowa counties. Western border of Kansas. Thompson still leads 53-45 percent. Only one-sixth of precincts reporting so far.

9:25 p.m. More than a hundred precincts reporting. Democrat Thompson still leads, 53 percent to 45 percent.

9:20 p.m. Thompson now ahead in Harvey County as well as in Sedgwick. Estes has now won Comanche County, ahead in six smaller counties besides Pawnee and Comanche. But with 76 precincts reporting, Thompson still leads by 22K+ to 18K+. Still 54 percent to 44 percent.

9:15 p.m. Now 54 percent Thompson (D) to 44 percent Estes (R). Two percent for Libertarian Rockhold.

9:10 p.m. With 49 precincts reporting, Thompson still up, but by less. 55 percent to 43 percent.

9:05 p.m. Thompson lead up again, with 19 precincts reporting. 65 percent to 34 percent.

9:00 p.m. Eastern time. Estes has won Pawnee County; no surprises there. Estes winning three other counties, Thompson winning Sedgwick County (Wichita), 12 other counties not reporting yet. Polls closed only an hour ago, or less.

17 precincts in. Now trending toward 60-40 for Thompson. 14,722 to 9,425.

With 12 precincts in, Thompson leads 60 percent to 38 percent for Estes, one percent for Rockhold.

Three precincts in, Thompson  now ahead 14,597 to 9,052.

Two precincts reporting, and Thompson still ahead 61 percent to 37 percent. (Unofficial results.) One percent for Libertarian Chris Rockhold.

Not even one percent in yet, but Thompson ahead 61 percent to 37 percent.

Unlikely to last long. But the vote for the moment is 14,226 for James A. Thompson. And 8,563 for Ron Estes.

How the Democrats Keep Losing. 2017, Part 2. Kansas special, 4th District, April 11 (and Georgia 6th, April 18)

The next 2017 special election is taking place–as I write this–in Kansas.* Democratic candidate and Army vet James Thompson and Republican Ron Estes are running for the seat vacated when Rep. Mike Pompeo left to become CIA director.

James Thompson, Ron Estes

James Thompson, Ron Estes

Kansas House District 4 is traditionally Republican–like most of Kansas, dating from back when the state refused to enter the Union as a hotbed of proponents for enslaving fellow human beings. (See the repudiated ‘Lecompton Constitution’ for the history. It plays one part in Chapter 6 of my book, Firearms Regulation in the Bill of Rights, the chapter on the nineteenth century.) The GOP began as an anti-slavery movement.

The most recent history in Kansas’ 4th mainly displays the differences between how the Democratic Party and the GOP support their candidates–or don’t. Not to the advantage of the former. Thompson, a civil rights attorney who has experienced something like poverty, has not been supported by the state Democratic Party.

Nor has he been supported by the national party.

Meanwhile, the Repubs aren’t making the same mistake. Politico reported last week that “The NRCC spent $25,000 on digital advertising in the upcoming KS-04 special election – a dark-red district left open by CIA Director Mike Pompeo and not expected to be competitive.” At this point several news outlets are reporting efforts on behalf of Estes by the national GOP, as for example here and below.

http://salinapost.com/2017/04/10/texas-sen-cruz-to-have-rally-for-gop-hopeful-in-kansas-race/

Meanwhile again, all hands are on deck–as I wrote last week–to help out candidate Jon Ossoff in Georgia’s 6th, running against a field that includes four other Democrats. Guess you have to be running against other Democrats to draw the needed attention. And draw it he did; boosted by Daily Kos and ActBlue along with other organizations, Ossoff pulled in a breathtaking $8.3 million in contributions, a record. (Kos has belatedly weighed in on behalf of Thompson in Kansas–very belatedly. Since my last post, in fact. Within the past week.)

If the Dems wanted to help a House candidate, why didn’t they help this guy? –His intra-party opponents were already eliminated. He had been  nominated in a democratic in-state process. No getting hands dirty. No hurting anyone’s feelings. Fewer suggestions of favoritism, arbitrariness, back-room deals or artificial pre-selection.

What is some Democrats’ problem with looking democratic?

Trick question.

Here is my hypothesis, and I have no problem with corrections, emendations or refutation. Feel free to refine, by all means. But here it is: in my view it is a problem when national and state Democrats neglect their own good candidates running against Republicans and instead pour resources into trying to pick a nominee against other Dems. It looks undemocratic, for one thing. For another, in Georgia 6th (picking a random example here), with four other Democratic candidates, outside support for Ossoff runs a substantial risk of alienating supporters of the other four. Also, that kind of big money pouring in–overwhelmingly from outside the state and largely because of large entities like MoveOn and Kos–can turn off voters. Voters cease to think their vote will make a difference. (This was one of the key factors behind non-voting in 2016, according to a Pew research survey).

As the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes, an influx of massive outside money can contribute to negative perceptions of the candidate. Not that any candidate wouldn’t be happy to get millions of dollars in contributions, from virtually anywhere. But the national party’s focus on one candidate running against fellow Democrats does not redeem its neglect of strong candidates facing opponents across party lines. This is the way to rebuild the Democratic brand after Clinton?

Predictions are vain. Thompson may win Kansas’ 4th despite the lack of intelligent, principled support from the state and national party. Ossoff may win more than 50 percent in Georgia’s 6th despite the massive unintelligent, unprincipled support from same–and from Daily Kos, which pre-selected him way ahead of time, and from MoveOn and the other out-of-state groups.

Right now, however, the available forecasting and results raise questions. They do not provide answers, as anyone who remembers 2016 would do well to remember. The money gap in Georgia cannot be disputed. The leading Democratic candidate, Ossoff, has received a nonpareil amount of money in one quarter for a House race–and more than all the Republican candidates combined. I am not denying the deep feeling of out-of-state ActBlue donors. But isn’t there a possibility that some potential GOP donors are waiting until after the primary to donate?

The early voting results also cannot be disputed. There is an extra-large turnout by Democrats in early voting. As the New York Times’ Nate Cohn tweeted a few days ago, early voting as of Saturday was 49 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican. So does that mean the percentages will be the same on April 18?

More to the point, is all that Democratic turnout really going to one candidate?

That’s the line taken by the careerist-type Dems in the big media outlets. HuffPost headline: “Democrats Continue to Turn Out in Second Week of Voting for Jon Ossoff”. Brought to you by Andrea Mitchell at MSNBC, via HuffPost (and probably by others at MSNBC).

Okay, I’ll bite. How do they know the Dem turnout is for Ossoff? Is anyone doing exit polling? Are any exit polls available? Are any other Democrats receiving votes?

 

*This post was initially planned to go up on April 11.