Shouldn’t be a surprise, of course. But denial, as they say, ain’t just a river in Egypt, and this August week has been a session in media denial. Voyaging to HomeImprovementLand, myself, this summer, and focused individually at least as much on family responsibilities and related matters as on the larger national issues, I was still not able to avoid the drumbeat of Obama’s-dropping-in-the-polls coming out of our plethoric cable channels and other outlets, with much handicapping as usual coming from establishment pundits trying to create the perception of a close and tightening race.

 
So I decided to take a look for myself.

 
Here’s the line.

 
1) Notwithstanding the emphasis on 'national' polls—in which Obama still leads McCain, btw, as he has led McCain uninterruptedly from the moment the two became presumptive nominees—we still have an Electoral College.

 
2) The way our Electoral College is set up, while the mood of the nation certainly matters, votes are counted (if they are, but that’s a further chapter) by the states. So the way to find out which candidate is ‘ahead’ in an election yet to be held, if you subscribe to the use of polling data, is by checking the candidates’ standings state-by-state.

 
3) And then you match the state polls to the number of votes each state has in the Electoral College.

 
Sorry to sound insultingly simple, but that’s the way to figure out which candidate is ahead, if you’re so minded.

 
Incidentally—skipping ahead to the ending here—regardless of what you might hear or read about fanatical ‘Hillary’ supporters and adorers of ‘Bill’ (sure), nervous voters spooked by Russia and Georgia, evangelicals ‘returning’ to McCain, or any other media fig leaf du jour—the real election news is that the news is still good for Obama. According to that handy little convenient web site USA Election polls, Obama leads McCain in the state-by-state 280 to 258.

 
That would be ten more than 270, the magic number required to win a general election in our quadrennial presidential race.

 
I, of course, did it the slow and hard way, skimming polls on my own, leaning toward the more conservative. Below is my run-down of relatively recent polls, by state, alphabetically:

 
Electoral College:

9 ALABAMA                         August 8: McCain 58, Obama 38.

3 ALASKA                             August 1: McCain 48, Obama 42.

10 ARIZONA                         August 20: McCain 40, Obama 30.

6 ARKANSAS                       July 17: Obama 52, McCain 39.

55 CALIFORNIA                  July 31: Obama 50, McCain 35.

9 COLORADO                      August 16: McCain 44, Obama 41.

7 CONNECTICUT                July 31: Obama 51, McCain 36.

3 DELAWARE                      March 6: Obama 50, McCain 41.

3 D.C.

27 FLORIDA                         August 20: McCain 48, Obama 46.

15 GEORGIA                        August 18: McCain 53, Obama 44.

4 HAWAII

4 IDAHO                                July 31: McCain 53, Obama 37.

21 ILLINOIS                         August 18: Obama 55, McCain 40.

11 INDIANA                          August 20: McCain 50, Obama 44.

7 IOWA                                  August 20: Obama 50, McCain 43.

6 KANSAS                             August 13: McCain 55, Obama 41.

8 KENTUCKY                       August 12: McCain 55, Obama 37.

9 LOUISIANA                       August 19: McCain 57, Obama 39.

4 MAINE                               August 15: Obama 53, McCain 39.

10 MARYLAND                    August 21: Obama 53, McCain 43.

12 MASSACHUSETTS         August 7: Obama 54, McCain 38.

17 MICHIGAN                      August 8: Obama 49, McCain 45.

10 MINNESOTA                   August 19: Obama 47, McCain 45.

6 MISSISSIPPI                      July 30: McCain 54, Obama 42.

11 MISSOURI                       August 20: McCain 50, Obama 40.

3 MONTANA                        July 31: McCain 47, Obama 47.

5 NEBRASKA                       July 30: McCain 55, Obama 36.

5 NEVADA                            August 14: McCain 48, Obama 45.

4 NEW HAMPSHIRE           August 21: Obama 47, McCain 46.

15 NEW JERSEY                  August 13: Obama 51, Obama 41.

5 NEW MEXICO                  July 25: Obama 49, McCain 43.

31 NEW YORK                     August 18: Obama 47, McCain 39.

15 NORTH CAROLINA      August 20: McCain 45, Obama 43.

3 NORTH DAKOTA July 24: McCain 45, Obama 42.

20 OHIO                                 August 20: McCain 48, Obama 43.

7 OKLAHOMA                     August 3: McCain 56, Obama 24.

7 OREGON                            August 11: Obama 52, McCain 42.

21 PENNSYLVANIA            August 19: Obama 46, McCain 41.

4 RHODE ISLAND               June 30: Obama 55, McCain 31.

8 SOUTH CAROLINA         July 25: McCain 53, Obama 40.

3 SOUTH DAKOTA              July 9: McCain 44, Obama 40.

11 TENNESSEE                    August 18: McCain 51, Obama 36.

34 TEXAS                              August 5: McCain 43, Obama 33.

5 UTAH

3 VERMONT

13 VIRGINIA                        August 14: McCain 48/43, Obama 47/43.

11 WASHINGTON               August 14: Obama 51, McCain 44.

5 WEST VIRGINIA              June 6: McCain 45, Obama 37.

10 WISCONSIN                    August 13: Obama 47, McCain 42.

3 WYOMING                        May 29: McCain 53, Obama 40.

 
Results: Reserving a little skepticism for the uncertainties of arithmetic, changes that happen over time (including changes developing from self-fulfilling prophecy), and the dubious reliability of polling—still, as of August 20, 2008, the standings are:

States going for Obama: 292

States going for McCain: 232

States tied: 13

 
These results track with the probabilities: the disastrous Bush presidency, the grim focus on ‘global’ bloodshed, and the state of an economy under an administration whose fiscal and monetary policy is war. But is highly unlikely that we will see these polling results elucidated by, for example, Howard Kurtz at the Washington Post, who seems to be channeling his inner Jerome Corsi.

 
It is an unwritten rule of election coverage in America that television in particular is obliged to pretend that every election is a close horse race. (Not that that means they give ‘minor candidates’ a chance.)

 
In 2008, this unwritten rule is giving us some ludicrous gyrations from the national political press. They’re simply not allowed to say that the Democratic guy is winning.

 
And that’s in spite of all the hard numbers. Not to take anything away from Obama, who has run a brilliant campaign, but—once again—owing to the makeup of our Electoral College, there are certain factors that it wd be unrealistic for even a viable GOP candidate to ignore:

1. California (55) and New York (31) own a hefty chunk of 86 electoral votes solidly Democratic. Both states go for Democrats in national elections.

2. The only states in the union equally solid, a virtual cert—if they still are--for Republicans are Utah (3), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), Indiana (11), South Carolina (8), Georgia (15), Alabama (9), Nebraska (5), and Alaska (3), for a GOP total of 61.

3. But countering those, several smaller states go reliably Democratic. Massachusetts (12), Vermont (3), Rhode Island (4) and Connecticut (7) in New England and Maryland (10), the District of Columbia (3), New Jersey (15) and Delaware (3) in the mid-Atlantic add another 57 votes for the Dems, a starting bloc of 143 electoral votes; add Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), and Hawaii (4), and by even the most cautious calculation—without including the rest of New England, or Illinois, or Michigan, or Pennsylvania—there are 164 electoral votes to be equaled just for the GOP to get a real race.

4. In other words, by any reasonable calculation the Democrat takes all of the West Coast, all of New England, and most of the ‘Rust Belt’; Obama stomps in the mid-Atlantic, threatening to take even Virginia; and is a threat everywhere there’s enough coastline to fall into the adventurous-demographic category (Florida, coastal Louisiana, coastal Texas).

Note: Considering point #2 above, the obliviousness of media outlets may be strategic. Undoubtedly it is so at Fox News. Creating the perception of a close ‘national’ race—by focusing exclusively on ‘national’ polls (more on those, later)—is a great way to obscure any anomalies in the individual states, when the election rolls around. ‘Close’ at the national level always means they don’t look too closely at the state level.