Here is the run-down:

• Two vote behemoths anchor the Electoral College map and arithmetic, California (55) and New York (31), a hefty chunk of 86 electoral votes solidly Democratic. They went to Hillary Clinton in the primaries, and both go for Democrats in national elections.

• This fact alone deals the GOP a hefty challenge coming out of the starting gate. The only states in the union equally solid, a virtual cert—if they still are--for Republicans are Utah (3), Idaho (4), Wyoming (3), and Indiana (11). Setting aside the possibility that Indiana may be in doubt, the GOP starts with a solid base of 21 electoral votes, West and Midwest.

•  A few more states have been reliably Republican with no earth-shaking special election or other recent change. This group includes South Carolina (8), Georgia (15), Alabama (9), Nebraska (5), and Alaska (3), an additional 40 reliably GOP electoral votes, for a GOP total of 61.

• Several other smaller states go reliably Democratic. Massachusetts (12), Vermont (3), Rhode Island (4) and Connecticut (7) in New England and Maryland (10), the District of Columbia (3), New Jersey (15) and Delaware (3) in the mid-Atlantic add another 57 votes for the Dems, a starting bloc of 143 electoral votes.

• Add to that total Minnesota (10), Oregon (7), and Hawaii (4), and by even the most cautious calculation—without including the rest of New England, or Illinois, or Michigan, all of which should go Democratic—there are 164 electoral votes to be equaled just for the GOP to get a real race.

• So, looking at just what used to be called ‘safe’ states, the Electoral College tally is 164 Dem, 61 Repub. That is a daunting starting position.

• Just to even up the odds a little bit, let’s arbitrarily set aside any tentative questions about the other two crown jewels in the Sunbelt, and give both Florida (27) and Texas (34) to the GOP, bringing the GOP total to 122.

• Again arbitrarily, let’s add all the other Southern states to the Republican column, which is the way most established pundits calculate, if you call it that. That would add North Carolina (15), Louisiana (9)—forgetting that special congressional election—Mississippi (6)—forgetting another special election—Arkansas (6), and especially Virginia (13), forgetting the way Virginia’s been going lately. This version of South adds another 49 votes for the GOP, for a total of 171.

• This looks like a lead--except that if the entire South can be hypothesized to go Republican, it is at least equally reasonable to project the entire Northeast as Democratic. That would bring Maine (4) and New Hampshire (4) into the Democrats’ column, for a total of 172, a Democratic advantage of one electoral vote.

• Tennessee (11) and Kentucky (8) might not go Democratic even in a Democratic landslide. Both the Border States border on negligible for newspaper readership, and their people have been under the thumb of corporate interests for decades. So add another 19 for the GOP, for a total of 190.

• To make things as hard as possible for the Dems, hypothetically, let’s give the GOP Oklahoma (7) and West Virginia (5) for also being Border States and Arizona (10) for being John McCain’s home state. That brings the Republican Electoral College total to 212.

That leaves only another 58 electoral votes for McCain to glean, from the total 149 votes remaining. So near, and yet so far, to coin a phrase.

Some electoral votes reside in the Southwest (19) with Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, the West (3) with Montana, and the Northwest (11) with Washington State. None of these look GOP in 2008.

Then there is Illinois (21), which looks good for Obama. The rest of the Midwest comprises Iowa (7) and Michigan (17), probably Dem; Kansas (6), Missouri (11), and the Dakotas (6); and Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10). Kansas has Obama connections and has been electing switched-Repub Democrats; Obama did excellently in Missouri.

So the more feasible grabbables look like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—sure enough, the ‘battleground’ states that everybody and his uncle bring up. Setting aside my gut feeling that there is no good reason why any of these three states would go Republican if the Democrats ran a halfway competent campaign, let alone all of them, they also add up to only 51 electoral votes—and that’s if the GOP gets all three of them, which seems rather against the odds. It would take the Dakotas and/or Montana (pick 2 out 3) to hit the 270 mark.

And once again, this scenario applies only if the GOP also holds on to ALL of Virginia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, North Carolina, West Virginia, Indiana, Arizona and above all Texas and Florida.

Not much of a horse race. Making matters worse for McCain and Romney, if that’s the ticket, is that the Democrats have enormous funding for a change and can run Howard Dean’s fifty-state campaign—they also have Howard Dean—forcing even the mega-funded Republicans to fight an uphill battle in at least forty states.

Next up, a look at winning the race from the Dem-Obama perspective.