The problem of the
Florida
and
Michigan Democratic
delegations stems from the fact that
Michigan
and
Florida ended up holding a
non-primary instead of a primary in 2008. Most of the general public does not
know how much of the Florida effort was generated by the Republican Party, with
full support from the local GOP including Jeb Bush, former governor and first
brother. The public also does not know how much of the
Michigan
effort was generated by entrenched
Clinton
supporters. Sen. Hillary Clinton is claiming ‘victory’ in both
Florida
and
Michigan. The situation may
be easier for the Democratic Party to address in
Florida,
where it was created by the GOP, than in
Michigan,
where it was largely created by local Dems.
In Florida, the
problem arose in May 2007. Republican Gov. Charlie Crist—who John McCain is now
heavily hinting may be his vice-presidential choice—and the GOP state
legislature moved the Florida primary up to Jan. 29, near the beginning of the
2008 election calendar, flouting Republican Party rules as well as Democratic
Party rules.
As St. Petersburg
Times columnist Howard Troxler pointed out in “This
bill does a lot more than advertised,” the same law also allows
officeholders to run for new office without resigning their current positions,
restricts citizen petitions, and gives state party bosses “absolute power to
remove local party officers.” It also derailed internal Democratic Party
processes in a key Sunbelt state.
Gov. Crist, a prominent McCain supporter, now appears
frequently on television, arguing that Floridians’ “precious right” to vote
means that results of the partial primary should stand as is. On March 9, Crist
called seating the delegation “a beautiful thing.” Crist did not mention that
the as-is delegation would benefit Clinton
against Obama, and that national polls show Clinton
the weakest Democrat against Sen. McCain in a general election.
Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz of FL’s 20th
district, a Clinton ‘Hillraiser’—one
of the prominent figures raising over $100,000 in campaign donations for
Clinton—is largely siding with Crist against the Obama campaign.
Setting aside the obvious campaign to benefit Clinton’s
candidacy at all costs, sincere proposals on how best to seat the Florida
and Michigan delegations at the
August Democratic National Convention in Denver
include a menu of options.
The most feasible proposal is for a mail-in vote--cost
estimated at $6 million, presumably to be raised by the Florida Democratic
Party. Sen. Bill Nelson of Florida and Democratic National Committee chair
Howard Dean have been receptive to voting by mail, which along with being less
expensive than a primary election also has the advantage of including military
personnel stationed overseas.
Other options are to divide Florida
and Michigan delegates equally
between Obama and Clinton, or to apportion them according to pledged delegates
already won. Both options hypothetically benefit Obama, who might also benefit
from a mail-in vote.
If the Democrats want to avoid a deadly split at the
convention, it is self-evident that they have to move toward one of or some
combination of these options in Florida,
expeditiously. Someone who balks is self-evidently less concerned about party
losses, and it might be a good exercise in tea-leaf reading to inquire why.
Meanwhile, public information is key. What happened in 2007
is that state political managers in Michigan
and Florida decided to up-end the
traditional lead-off of Iowa and New
Hampshire, without being able to carry their national
party or public opinion along with them. There was no national groundswell in
favor of removing Iowa and New
Hampshire from their customary place at the beginning
of the election cycle.
So the party figures tried an end run, moving their primary
date up in a plucky fight that voters largely did not know they wanted.
Admittedly the fight looks a little different in Florida
than in the cold and frozen north, where moving up the primary would increase
the factor of harsh winter weather—depressing turnout, which might also benefit
Clinton against Obama. In Florida,
the fight was led by Republicans; in Michigan,
by Democrats. The common denominator is that the move was instigated and
supported in both states by individuals with a vested interest in seeing Sen.
Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sen. Debbie Stabenow,
who championed the Michigan
calendar revolt, are Clinton ‘superdelegates’.
So is Rep. John Dingell, whose wife, National Democratic Committeewoman Debbie
Dingell, also championed the move.
Links between Clinton, Granholm and Stabenow include
controversial Clinton donor Norman
Hsu, who has given generously to Stabenow and Granholm--$42,100 to Granholm
by one tally, and $33,813 to Stabenow. The Boston
Globe reported that “at least some of the $17,000 that Governor Jennifer
Granholm of Michigan collected from Hsu and his associates in 2005 and 2006
stems from a Nov. 29, 2005, fund-raising reception for her hosted by Steven
Rattner, a New York investment firm executive and major Clinton donor seen as a
candidate for US Treasury secretary if Clinton wins.” The Globe also reported that Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan
collected more than $20,000 from Hsu and his associates.
A few days after the Michigan
legislature sent the primary bill to Gov. Granholm, Mr. Hsu donated a further
$43,700 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The DSCC later
returned the donation.
In October 2007, all the major Democrats except Clinton—Biden,
Edwards, Obama and Richardson—withdrew their names from the Michigan
primary ballot. Clinton pledged not to campaign in Michigan, but the
Clinton campaign obviously calculated that a few extra percentage points there
would help her run the table, in a campaign strategy to get contests over with
as early as possible. As Clinton
said in a January
television appearance, “It’ll all be over by February 5.”
Michigan Democratic
party figures now seem to oppose corrective action more vehemently than do their
party counterparts in Florida. An
alliance between Gov. Crist of Florida
and some of the chief Democrats around Detroit
should be starting to look a little unnatural.