“Escalating public protests and signs that his military support was flagging prompted Interim President Pedro Carmona to resign late Saturday night . . . Media reports indicate that tens of thousands of protestors began surrounding the presidential palace late Saturday demanding Chavez’s return . . . Carmona’s support unraveled quickly yesterday as political parties, labor unions, and the military sensed he was moving too quickly and without their consultation.”

Larger implications in this coup episode include another black eye for America in public perception around the globe when administration complicity becomes known. Some lack of esteem can be inferred from the widespread suspicion even before documentation comes out. Regrettably, the suspicion voiced widely abroad gets too little attention at home, where a GOP-dominated Congress and malleable corporate outlets tend to downplay or to trivialize it. Had more information about Venezuela, Elliot Abrams, and the meetings of coup leaders with Otto Reich in Washington, D.C., become widely available, the U.S. public might have been better able to ward off the propaganda drive to Iraq.

More immediately, this Spot Commentary suggests that in Caracas as in Baghdad, the U.S. Intelligence Community lacks boots on the ground. Rather than firsthand observation from the street, the writer here seems to be relying on newspaper reports. Furthermore, the writer goes on to say (hopefully) that Chavez’s “rumored” return to office will only lead to further unrest, a prediction not fulfilled.

The chief language of Venezuela is Spanish, and many Venezuelans speak English: a lack of personnel skilled in less-taught languages is not the only determinant in our lack of intelligence from inside the Middle East.

Apr. 17, 2002 – The CIA issues another Senior Executive Intelligence Brief (SEIB) with material on Venezuela. The administration is backing a plan for the Organization of American States to send a “democracy mission” to Venezuela, but some of Venezuela’s neighbors are leery of this mission, saying that constitutional order has already been restored there. Under the heading “Latin America: Split over Venezuela,” the SEIB gives a quick run-down of Latin American governments that might be willing to side with the U.S. administration against Chavez, and those that would not be willing. The coalition of the possibly willing in Latin America includes most prominently Colombia, the nation informally known as a haven for former Nazi collaborators after World War II.